Annual Residential Roof Age Index Report: Western North Carolina

How old are residential roofs in Western North Carolina and where do older roofs meet frequent hail?

An estimated 110,000 owner-occupied single-family homes in Western North Carolina have a roof that is 20 years old or older: an estimated 39% of homes, with an estimated range of 23% to 43%. Replacing those roofs at the regional median cost of a roof job would total an estimated $1.2 billion. The study covers the 23 counties in Western Carolina University’s definition of the region: Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, McDowell, Macon, Madison, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Watauga, Wilkes and Yancey. Every roof-age figure on this page is shown with its estimated range. How the estimates are made.

Key findings

The ranges allow for Hurricane Helene. The federal surveys predate the storm, so the low end of every estimated range is lowered to account for roofs replaced afterward (details below).
Buncombe County: an estimated 20,000 homes with an older roof (36%, range 17–40%) and $220 million in replacement value. Henderson County: 11,000 homes (37%, range 20–41%) and $120 million.
Hail is less frequent than in the other markets, 1.0 radar hail day a year on average, but much more frequent along the escarpment and foothills. Rutherford and Burke counties each averaged 1.7 days.
The highest combined risk is in the foothills. Burke County is rated Highest; Caldwell and Wilkes counties are rated Elevated, all with high confidence.
Freeze-thaw cycles are frequent: 97 days a year on average, against 66 in the Charlotte region, and only 16 days at 90°F or hotter.

Estimated roof age by county

County	Rank	Estimated share of homes with a roof 20+ years old	Estimated range	Estimated median roof age	Estimated homes with a roof 20+ years old	Estimated replacement value
Caldwell County, NC	1	41%	27–46%	13–18 years	8,600	$95 million
Wilkes County, NC	2	41%	25–45%	13–18 years	6,400	$71 million
Burke County, NC	3	41%	24–45%	13–18 years	9,100	$100 million
Mitchell County, NC	4	41%	18–45%	13–18 years	1,700	$19 million
Alleghany County, NC	5	40%	24–45%	13–18 years	1,300	$15 million
Avery County, NC	6	40%	22–45%	13–18 years	1,800	$20 million
Transylvania County, NC	7	40%	25–44%	13–18 years	3,700	$41 million
Ashe County, NC	8	40%	25–44%	13–18 years	3,200	$36 million
Rutherford County, NC	9	40%	21–44%	13–17 years	6,400	$70 million
McDowell County, NC	10	40%	20–44%	13–18 years	4,200	$46 million
Haywood County, NC	11	39%	24–44%	13–17 years	6,500	$72 million
Macon County, NC	12	39%	29–44%	13–18 years	4,500	$50 million
Clay County, NC	13	39%	31–44%	13–18 years	1,400	$15 million
Watauga County, NC	14	39%	25–44%	13–18 years	4,300	$48 million
Swain County, NC	15	39%	29–43%	13–17 years	1,100	$12 million
Graham County, NC	16	39%	28–43%	12–17 years	760	$8 million
Polk County, NC	17	38%	23–43%	12–17 years	2,400	$27 million
Jackson County, NC	18	38%	28–42%	13–17 years	3,500	$39 million
Yancey County, NC	19	38%	19–42%	12–17 years	1,900	$21 million
Henderson County, NC	20	37%	20–41%	12–16 years	11,000	$120 million
Buncombe County, NC	21	36%	17–40%	12–16 years	20,000	$220 million
Madison County, NC	22	36%	22–40%	12–16 years	1,800	$20 million
Cherokee County, NC	23	36%	29–40%	12–16 years	3,200	$35 million

Estimates from the Benton Roofing Roof Age Index, modeled from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2020–2024 and American Housing Survey 2017–2023 data. Owner-occupied single-family detached homes, as of 2026. Estimates, not measurements; ranges combine survey uncertainty and model choice. Replacement values use the regional median roof-job cost and are conservative. Hurricane Helene repairs may have replaced some older roofs; the estimated range accounts for that.

Twenty years is the life expectancy that a 2007 National Association of Home Builders and Bank of America Home Equity study lists for asphalt roofing. Actual roof life varies, and an older roof doesn’t necessarily need replacing.

ZIP codes

ZIP estimates apply the same regional replacement rate as the county figures, so differences of a few points between ZIP codes fall within their estimated ranges. ZIP codes with fewer than 50 qualifying homes are withheld. Every ZIP code is in the downloadable data.

ZIP codes with the most homes with an older roof

ZIP code	Rank	County	Estimated homes with a roof 20+ years old	Estimated replacement value	Estimated share of homes with a roof 20+ years old	Estimated range
28655	1	Burke County, NC	5,400	$59 million	41%	22–45%
28645	2	Caldwell County, NC	4,800	$52 million	41%	25–46%
28734	3	Macon County, NC	3,300	$37 million	40%	29–44%
28752	4	McDowell County, NC	2,800	$31 million	41%	21–46%
28806	5	Buncombe County, NC	2,800	$31 million	38%	15–42%
28792	6	Henderson County, NC	2,600	$29 million	36%	18–40%
28739	7	Henderson County, NC	2,600	$28 million	39%	19–43%
28803	8	Buncombe County, NC	2,300	$25 million	36%	15–40%
28906	9	Cherokee County, NC	2,200	$24 million	34%	27–37%
28804	10	Buncombe County, NC	2,200	$24 million	38%	14–42%

ZIP codes with the highest share of older roofs

Among ZIP codes with at least 500 qualifying homes.

ZIP code	Rank	County	Estimated share of homes with a roof 20+ years old	Estimated range	Estimated homes with a roof 20+ years old
28160	1	Rutherford County, NC	44%	19–49%	330
28643	2	Ashe County, NC	43%	24–48%	400
28043	3	Rutherford County, NC	43%	21–48%	1,800
28659	4	Wilkes County, NC	43%	24–48%	2,100
28638	5	Caldwell County, NC	43%	28–47%	1,400
28698	6	Watauga County, NC	42%	25–47%	250
28901	7	Cherokee County, NC	42%	30–47%	580
28637	8	Burke County, NC	42%	30–47%	210
28669	9	Wilkes County, NC	42%	27–47%	280
28690	10	Burke County, NC	42%	25–47%	1,300

Hurricane Helene

The replacement rates behind the index come from federal surveys conducted through 2023. Hurricane Helene struck in September 2024, so roofs replaced because of the storm aren’t reflected, and every such replacement lowers the true share of older roofs.

No public source counts roofs replaced after Helene, so the study sets an upper limit instead. It spreads the North Carolina Department of Insurance’s 58,165 paid homeowners claims (statewide, as of September 12, 2025) across counties in proportion to FEMA-verified non-flood damage, and counts every paid claim as a full roof replacement. That deliberately overstates the effect.

By that upper limit, the region’s share of older roofs could be up to about 6 percentage points lower overall, and up to about 12 points lower in the hardest-hit counties, including Buncombe and Mitchell. The headline estimates are unchanged, but the low end of every estimated range on this page has been lowered by its county’s or ZIP code’s upper-limit effect. That’s why ranges here are wider than in the other markets.

We will revisit the adjustment if county-level insurance or permit data become available. Full Helene method.

How often hail hits

Rank	County	Radar hail days/yr (1 in+)	Radar hail days/yr (1.75 in+)	Hail Exposure Index
1	Rutherford County	1.7	0.44	129
2	Burke County	1.7	0.30	125
3	McDowell County	1.6	0.34	119
4	Polk County	1.6	0.35	118
5	Caldwell County	1.5	0.26	115
6	Transylvania County	1.4	0.24	105
7	Henderson County	1.4	0.31	102
8	Wilkes County	1.3	0.24	101
9	Clay County	1.1	0.19	81
10	Buncombe County	1.0	0.22	76
11	Cherokee County	0.9	0.21	68
12	Watauga County	0.8	0.10	64
13	Mitchell County	0.8	0.14	63
14	Ashe County	0.8	0.10	62
15	Avery County	0.8	0.08	61
16	Madison County	0.7	0.14	56
17	Alleghany County	0.7	0.14	56
18	Macon County	0.7	0.08	52
19	Yancey County	0.6	0.08	46
20	Haywood County	0.5	0.09	41
21	Jackson County	0.5	0.09	39
22	Graham County	0.5	0.07	36
23	Swain County	0.4	0.06	34

Sources: NOAA NCEI Severe Weather Data Inventory (NEXRAD Level-III hail detections) and NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 2000–2025. Radar hail days = average days a year radar detected hail 1 inch or larger at a typical location in the county. Index: three-market average = 100.

Where older roofs meet frequent hail

The Composite Risk Index ranks all 44 counties in the study on both estimated roof age and radar hail frequency, then retests every ranking under 12 sets of assumptions. Tiers compare the study’s counties with each other and are not a forecast of damage.

Burke County is rated Highest, in 10 of 12 assumption sets. Caldwell and Wilkes counties are rated Elevated, in 11 and 10 of 12. Eleven of the region’s 23 counties, including Buncombe, Haywood and Henderson, are rated Lower. A Lower rating means lower than the study’s other counties, not low risk. Six counties did not hold a consistent rating.

County	Tier	Assumption sets agreeing	Estimated share of homes with a roof 20+ years old	Radar hail days a year	Days at 90°F or hotter (context)	Freeze-thaw days (context)
Burke County, NC	Highest	10 of 12	41%	1.7	35	88
Caldwell County, NC	Elevated	11 of 12	41%	1.5	36	88
Wilkes County, NC	Elevated	10 of 12	41%	1.3	32	98
Clay County, NC	Moderate	10 of 12	39%	1.1	3	100
Mitchell County, NC	Moderate	8 of 12	41%	0.8	2	115
McDowell County, NC	Moderate	7 of 12	40%	1.6	21	102
Cherokee County, NC	Lower	12 of 12	36%	0.9	21	100
Jackson County, NC	Lower	12 of 12	38%	0.5	13	98
Madison County, NC	Lower	12 of 12	36%	0.7	13	114
Yancey County, NC	Lower	12 of 12	38%	0.6	2	98
Graham County, NC	Lower	11 of 12	39%	0.5	8	87
Watauga County, NC	Lower	11 of 12	39%	0.8	less than 1	102
Swain County, NC	Lower	10 of 12	39%	0.4	8	105
Buncombe County, NC	Lower	9 of 12	36%	1.0	7	97
Haywood County, NC	Lower	9 of 12	39%	0.5	2	119
Henderson County, NC	Lower	9 of 12	37%	1.4	10	91
Macon County, NC	Lower	8 of 12	39%	0.7	9	102
Alleghany County, NC	No consistent tier	—	40%	0.7	12	97
Ashe County, NC	No consistent tier	—	40%	0.8	1	123
Avery County, NC	No consistent tier	—	40%	0.8	less than 1	107
Polk County, NC	No consistent tier	—	38%	1.6	33	49
Rutherford County, NC	No consistent tier	—	40%	1.7	45	89
Transylvania County, NC	No consistent tier	—	40%	1.4	7	111

Composite Risk Index, Benton Roofing Roof Age Index. Tiers combine where roofs are oldest (estimated share of owner-occupied single-family homes with a roof 20+ years old) and where hail is most frequent (NOAA radar hail days, 2000–2025), ranked in thirds across the 44 counties in Benton Roofing’s three markets. Each county was tested under 12 sets of assumptions; the tier shown is the one it lands in most often, with how many of the 12 agree. Counties without a consistent result are not assigned a tier. Tiers are relative to these 44 counties, not a forecast of damage. Heat and freeze-thaw days (NOAA 1991–2020 normals) are shown for context and are not part of the tier.

Heat and freeze-thaw

County	Days a year at 90°F or hotter	Freeze-thaw days a year	NOAA stations used
Alleghany County, NC	12	97	1 station
Ashe County, NC	1	123	2 stations
Avery County, NC	less than 1	107	1 station
Buncombe County, NC	7	97	8 stations
Burke County, NC	35	88	1 station
Caldwell County, NC	36	88	1 station
Cherokee County, NC	21	100	2 stations
Clay County, NC	3	100	1 station
Graham County, NC	8	87	1 station
Haywood County, NC	2	119	2 stations
Henderson County, NC	10	91	3 stations
Jackson County, NC	13	98	1 station
Macon County, NC	9	102	2 stations
Madison County, NC	13	114	1 station
McDowell County, NC	21	102	2 stations
Mitchell County, NC	2	115	1 station, nearby county
Polk County, NC	33	49	1 station
Rutherford County, NC	45	89	2 stations
Swain County, NC	8	105	2 stations
Transylvania County, NC	7	111	2 stations
Watauga County, NC	less than 1	102	2 stations
Wilkes County, NC	32	98	2 stations
Yancey County, NC	2	98	2 stations

Source: NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020. County figures are the median of NOAA stations in the county within 200 m of the elevation where most residents live, or the nearest representative station where a county has none. Local microclimates vary; single-station counties are less certain. Freeze-thaw days: the low reaches 32°F or colder and the high rises above 32°F. A descriptive climate comparison, not an estimate of roof life. Benton Roofing Roof Age Index.

If you own a home here

An older roof doesn’t necessarily need to be replaced. Roof life depends on the material, how it was installed, how it has been maintained and the weather it has faced. This study describes the age of the housing stock, not the condition of any one roof.

If you don’t know how old your roof is, the paperwork from your home purchase, a past inspection report, a building permit record or the installer’s warranty may tell you. A roof inspection can tell you its condition.

Use and cite this data

The data, tables and charts are free to download and reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), including for commercial use. Please credit Benton Roofing, Roof Age Index 2026, link to https://bentonroofing.com/roof-age-index/, and note any changes you made. The Benton Roofing name and logo are not covered by the license.

Found an error? Email contact@bentonroofinginc.com. Corrections are noted on the methodology page with their date.